Prediction-market news, analysis & research.
Short notes on regulatory and platform developments, deeper analysis on category shifts, and evergreen research on how the prediction-market category actually works.
- Research · Investor · 9 min
Exit pathways for a prediction-market affiliate
Strategic acquirers, financial buyers, and the multiples each pays. The honest map of who buys these properties and what they pay for them.
MAY 21, 2026Read → - Research · Category · 8 min
From $100m to $13bn: charting the prediction-market growth curve
Monthly trading volume on prediction markets grew 130× in 24 months. We break down the curve, what drove it, and which parts of it are durable.
MAY 21, 2026Read → - Research · Category · 9 min
Settlement and custody: how the money actually moves
USDC on Polygon versus USD on ACH. The settlement layer is where regulatory risk, user-experience friction, and counterparty exposure are quietly priced.
MAY 21, 2026Read → - Research · Operator · 10 min
SEO and AEO for prediction markets: how affiliates win the SERP and the LLM
Two index surfaces, one editorial strategy. Why prediction-market affiliates need to publish for both Google's search results and the answer-engines that increasingly intermediate them.
MAY 21, 2026Read → - Research · Operator · 8 min
Brand and trust in a pre-regulated category
When the legal status is unresolved, the affiliate's brand is the only consumer protection users have. That is both an obligation and an opportunity.
MAY 21, 2026Read → - Research · Operator · 9 min
The compliance stack for US prediction-market affiliates
Geo-gating, age verification, creative approval, and state-by-state ad rules. The under-discussed operational layer that determines whether an affiliate property can scale.
MAY 21, 2026Read → - Research · Investor · 10 min
The sportsbook defensive response: what DraftKings and Flutter actually do
Prediction markets are a structural threat to incumbent sportsbooks. The defensive playbook — partnership, acquisition, regulatory lobbying, exchange pivot — is being written in real time.
MAY 21, 2026Read → - Research · Investor · 8 min
Talent and org design for a prediction-market affiliate
The first ten hires for a media-layer bet in a pre-regulated category. Editor, quant, compliance, BD — and the order they actually need to arrive in.
MAY 21, 2026Read → - Research · Category · 9 min
What is a prediction market? A plain-English definition for 2026
Prediction markets are peer-to-peer exchanges where users buy and sell binary contracts on real-world outcomes. Here's how they actually work — and why investors are paying attention.
MAY 21, 2026Read → - Research · Category · 11 min
Prediction markets vs sports betting: the structural differences that matter
They look similar on the screen. The economics, regulation, and unit profile are different in ways that change how each business scales.
MAY 21, 2026Read → - Research · Regulatory · 12 min
The CFTC, the states, and prediction markets: who actually regulates what
A federal derivatives regulator says event contracts are its jurisdiction. State gambling regulators disagree. The unresolved fight is the single biggest risk variable in the category.
MAY 21, 2026Read → - Research · Investor · 13 min
The prediction-market risk register: 12 things that can kill a portfolio
A clear-eyed catalogue of regulatory, platform, traffic, and operational risks every investor in the category should be pricing in.
MAY 21, 2026Read → - Research · Category · 12 min
Polymarket vs Kalshi: the only comparison that matters in 2026
Two venues. Two settlement layers. Two regulatory perimeters. A direct comparison of the platforms that account for the overwhelming majority of US-facing prediction-market volume.
MAY 21, 2026Read → - Research · Category · 11 min
Liquidity mechanics: why most prediction-market contracts are still illiquid
Marquee markets trade like real exchanges. Most of the long tail doesn't. The platform that solves this wins the next leg of category growth.
MAY 21, 2026Read → - Research · Regulatory · 10 min
Prediction-market legality, state by state: a 2026 reference
A working map of where Kalshi's sports event contracts are operating freely, where they are contested, and where they are blocked. Updated as litigation moves.
MAY 21, 2026Read → - Research · Investor · 12 min
Unit economics of a prediction-market affiliate site
How an affiliate-media property in this category actually makes money — CAC, LTV, take-rate pass-through, and the gap that won't last forever.
MAY 21, 2026Read → - Analysis · Regulation
The Regulatory Inflection Point for U.S. Prediction Markets
Federal clarity on event contracts, combined with state-level momentum, has shifted prediction markets from a fringe instrument to a category with institutional surface area.
MAY 14, 2026Read → - Analysis · Strategy
The Thesis: Why Prediction Markets Need a Specialist Operator
Why we are building a holding company focused exclusively on regulated prediction markets and event contracts.
MAY 14, 2026Read → - Analysis · Strategy
Why We're Bullish on State-Level Prediction Verticals
Geographic specialisation compounds search, brand, and editorial authority faster than horizontal coverage in a category where intent is jurisdiction-bound.
MAY 7, 2026Read → - Analysis · Regulation
Regulatory Outlook: The Year Event Contracts Go Mainstream
A read on the regulatory tailwinds shaping prediction markets in the United States and beyond.
MAY 3, 2026Read → - Analysis · Category
Event Contracts vs. Sportsbooks: A Category Primer
The two categories share a surface but differ structurally on settlement, counterparty risk, and regulatory frame. Understanding the distinction is essential for operators and end users.
APR 26, 2026Read → - Analysis · Portfolio
Portfolio Update: Geographic Verticals Now Cover Five Markets
A note on the launch cadence for the portfolio — geographic and category coverage through year-end.
APR 17, 2026Read → - Analysis · Portfolio
Portfolio Note: Launching College and Manhattan Verticals
Two new properties enter the AffiliatePredictions portfolio, extending coverage into the college-market and Manhattan-specific verticals.
APR 12, 2026Read →