Our investment thesis: why we build and buy prediction-market media.
Why AffiliatePredictions invests in the media and affiliate layer of prediction markets, not the venues themselves, and how we underwrite each asset.
The category is real
Monthly prediction-market volume crossed $13bn in December 2025, up from less than $100m in early 2024 (NEXT.io, March 2026). The growth is not a curiosity; it reflects a structural shift in how a meaningful slice of US consumers express opinions about future events. The category will not disappear, even if specific venues do.
The venues are not the best place to invest
Platform-level investments like Polymarket, Kalshi and smaller entrants carry the most acute regulatory risk. Cease-and-desist letters, federal-preemption litigation, banking access, and CFTC rulemaking sit at the platform. Returns can be spectacular; downside scenarios are existential.
The risk register walks through what we model.
The media and affiliate layer is the better risk-adjusted bet
An editorial property that educates users on prediction markets, ranks venues honestly, and routes traffic across multiple licensed operators has:
- Lower regulatory risk. Affiliates are not the entity facing CFTC or state-regulator enforcement.
- Lower capital intensity. No matching engine, no clearing, no margin requirements.
- Diversifiable revenue. Multiple venues, multiple jurisdictions, sports plus non-sports verticals.
- Compounding moats. Editorial authority, search rankings, AI-engine citations, and email lists compound over time.
How we underwrite
Every asset we build or acquire is evaluated against five questions:
- Is the traffic source defensible (organic search, brand, email) or rented (paid social)?
- Is the revenue mix diversified across at least three partner venues?
- Is the editorial posture compliant with the strictest applicable regulator, not the loosest?
- Does the asset survive a 30–60% search-traffic compression from algorithmic shifts?
- Is the unit economics — CAC, LTV, payback period — positive without bonus arbitrage?
What we are not
We are not a VC fund chasing platform-level returns. We are not running a single-site SEO play hoping to flip on a multiple. We are a specialist holding company assembling a portfolio of durable media properties in a category we understand structurally.
If you're an investor or operator with a media property in this category, we'd like to talk. Get in touch →
Catie Di Stefano has spent 15 years in online gambling across the world's most regulated markets. She joined Betsson Group in Malta in 2011 and went on to lead VIP, CRM, gamification, and marketing functions across European and North American operations. As a DGE-licensed consultant for Hard Rock Casino New Jersey, she owned the online CRM program from launch in 2018. She has moderated panels alongside US senators, regulators, and C-level industry leaders at conferences across three continents.
Catie Di Stefano on LinkedIn →