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The prediction-market risk register: 12 things that can kill a portfolio
A clear-eyed catalogue of regulatory, platform, traffic, and operational risks every investor in the category should be pricing in.
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Prediction-market news, analysis, and evergreen research. Regulatory developments, volume shifts, platform launches, and category fundamentals — founder-written, primary-sourced.
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The CFTC, the states, and prediction markets: who actually regulates what
A federal derivatives regulator says event contracts are its jurisdiction. State gambling regulators disagree. The unresolved fight is the single biggest risk variable in the category.
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Prediction markets vs sports betting: the structural differences that matter
They look similar on the screen. The economics, regulation, and unit profile are different in ways that change how each business scales.
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What is a prediction market? A plain-English definition for 2026
Prediction markets are peer-to-peer exchanges where users buy and sell binary contracts on real-world outcomes. Here's how they actually work — and why investors are paying attention.
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The Regulatory Inflection Point for U.S. Prediction Markets
Federal clarity on event contracts, combined with state-level momentum, has shifted prediction markets from a fringe instrument to a category with institutional surface area.
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The Thesis: Why Prediction Markets Need a Specialist Operator
Why we are building a holding company focused exclusively on regulated prediction markets and event contracts.
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Why We're Bullish on State-Level Prediction Verticals
Geographic specialisation compounds search, brand, and editorial authority faster than horizontal coverage in a category where intent is jurisdiction-bound.
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Regulatory Outlook: The Year Event Contracts Go Mainstream
A read on the regulatory tailwinds shaping prediction markets in the United States and beyond.
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Event Contracts vs. Sportsbooks: A Category Primer
The two categories share a surface but differ structurally on settlement, counterparty risk, and regulatory frame. Understanding the distinction is essential for operators and end users.
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Portfolio Update: Geographic Verticals Now Cover Five Markets
A note on the launch cadence for the portfolio — geographic and category coverage through year-end.
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Portfolio Note: Launching College and Manhattan Verticals
Two new properties enter the AffiliatePredictions portfolio, extending coverage into the college-market and Manhattan-specific verticals.