Polymarket vs Kalshi.
The two largest prediction-market venues serving US-adjacent traders, compared on the dimensions that actually determine fit: regulation, custody, fees, and market mix.
- Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and USD-settled; Polymarket's primary venue settles in USDC on Polygon outside US jurisdiction.
- Polymarket leads in political and cultural markets by depth; Kalshi leads in sports event contracts and US economic data.
- Kalshi take rates run higher (1–4%) than Polymarket's variable 0–2%, but Kalshi clears in fiat with bank-segregated custody.
- The single biggest open question for both is state-level enforcement against federal CFTC preemption — see the legality tracker.
Dimension
Polymarket
Kalshi
Founded
2020
2018
Headquarters
Outside US (primary venue)
New York, USA
Jurisdiction
Non-US for primary venue; US-facing affiliate launched 2025
United States
Regulator
CFTC settlement 2022 (primary venue geofenced); US affiliate via DCM structure
CFTC (Designated Contract Market)
Settlement
USDC on Polygon
USD via ACH / wire; T+1 cleared
Custody
Self-custody via smart-contract wallets
Segregated customer accounts at partner banks
Monthly volume
$4–6bn (Q1 2026 average)
$6–8bn (Q1 2026 average)
Dominant markets
Politics, culture, macro, crypto
Sports event contracts, economic data, politics
Regulation
Kalshi operates as a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market under federal derivatives law — the same framework that governs futures exchanges. Polymarket's primary venue is geofenced from US users after a 2022 CFTC settlement; its 2025 US affiliate launched under a separate DCM structure. The practical difference: Kalshi users have a clear federal regulator; Polymarket US users rely on a newer, less-tested wrapper.
Custody & settlement
Kalshi settles in USD via ACH or wire, with funds held in segregated accounts at partner banks. Polymarket's primary venue settles in USDC on Polygon with self-custody via smart-contract wallets — faster and pseudonymous, but it puts wallet security on the user.
Market mix
Polymarket dominates politics, culture, and crypto-adjacent macro markets. Kalshi's 2025 expansion into sports event contracts — and the state-level cease-and-desist letters that followed — is the most consequential regulatory story in the category. See the state-by-state legality tracker for current status.
Who each platform fits
Kalshi is positioned for US-domiciled traders who want federal-regulator clarity, fiat settlement, and access to sports and economic-data contracts. Polymarket is positioned for traders comfortable with on-chain custody who want the deepest liquidity in political and cultural markets. Neither is universally better — the right answer depends on jurisdiction, custody preference, and which contracts you actually want to trade.
Polymarket tearsheet →Kalshi tearsheet →Legality tracker →